Ethereum Rebound of 97.7%: Value Reconstruction and Ecological Differentiation

When the price of Ethereum rebounded from a low of $1385 to $2700, the 97.7% increase reflected a diverse situation in the capital markets. Institutional funds remain cautious in the ETF market, while the open interest in derivative contracts has reached a historic high of $32.2 billion. The market seems to hope that this rebound will prove that Ethereum is still a value pit, and the Pectra upgrade has also provided some support for this view. Through a comprehensive analysis of various data points related to Ethereum, we can see an Ethereum that is gradually revealing itself as it undergoes a value reconstruction.

Market and Funds: ETFs are Cautious, Contract Enthusiasm is High

As of May 18, the total net assets of U.S. ETH ETFs reached $8.97 billion, accounting for 2.89% of Ethereum's total market capitalization. In comparison, Bitcoin ETFs accounted for 5.95% of its total market capitalization, indicating a higher preference for Bitcoin in the ETF market.

From February to the end of April, funds for the Ethereum ETF were mostly in a state of outflow. A rebound began on April 21, but the magnitude was not large. In April, the net inflow for the Ethereum ETF was approximately 66.25 million USD, and as of now in May, the net inflow is about 30 million USD.

According to the data, the "Net Unrealized Profit/Loss" (NUPL) value of Ethereum turned positive at the end of April. Previously, from April 1 to 22, the NUPL was negative, indicating that most holding addresses were in a state of loss at that time. As of May 17, the NUPL reached a maximum of 0.328, signaling the beginning of a bull market or a recovery period.

Interestingly, the number of addresses on the Ethereum chain with a balance greater than 1 has decreased after the price rebound, while it continuously increased during the previous downward trend. This indicates that some investors chose to take profits after the price rose to $1800. Currently, the percentage of profitable addresses for Ethereum has reached 60%.

Although it is still a distance from the historical high, the contract open interest has recently reached the level of historical highs. On May 14, the Ether contract open interest reached 32.249 billion USD, close to the historical maximum level. This indicates that the market's speculative enthusiasm for Ethereum remains high.

Overall, since the end of April, Ethereum has started to attract capital inflows, followed by a significant price increase. However, from the perspective of ETF fund flows, the proportion of traditional institutional capital increase is still not high.

TVL rebounds, but low Gas fees have not stimulated trading volume

In terms of on-chain activity, the daily active address count on Ethereum has not changed much, remaining between 400,000 and 600,000, a trend that has persisted for over a year. Recently, there has been a trend of breaking through 600,000.

The changes in TVL (Total Value Locked) are more pronounced. The TVL in USD began to rebound from around $45 billion on April 22, reaching a peak of $64.6 billion. However, considering the significant rise in the price of Ethereum, this may not reflect the true situation. In terms of ETH, the on-chain ETH staking amount has noticeably decreased since April 9, dropping from a peak of 30.26 million to 24 million, a decline of 20%. This may be due to some funds choosing to take profits or avoid unearned losses during the rapid price increase.

Regarding gas fees, as of May 16, the average gas price on Ethereum was 3.572 Gwei, a year-on-year decrease of 51.76%. Over the past 30 days, gas fees have generally shown a downward trend, mostly remaining below 8 Gwei. This is related to EIP-7691 in the Pectra upgrade, which aims to reduce L2 fees by expanding blob space.

However, the extremely low Gas fees do not seem to have stimulated growth in on-chain transactions. The daily transaction count data shows no significant change.

DEX Trading and Asset Landscape: Stablecoins Dominance and Ecological Transformation

On-chain staking data shows that from April 15 to May 5, the staking volume of Ethereum was in a net outflow state. It is worth noting that a large exchange has seen 30% of its staking flow out in the past 6 months. Currently, the validator with the highest staking volume remains a certain protocol, reaching 9.11 million coins.

In terms of DEX trading volume, the Ethereum mainnet has become significantly active after 2025. The recent increase in trading activity mainly comes from stablecoin-related transactions, with a certain stablecoin generating $568 million in fees on Ethereum over the past 30 days. As of May 18, Ethereum remains the public chain with the largest stablecoin issuance, accounting for over 50%, with a total issuance of $127.3 billion, which is double the TVL of Ethereum DeFi.

Analyzing the categories of funds on the Ethereum chain, it can be seen that nearly half of the transactions are completed with stablecoins and ETH transfers. The proportion of stablecoin transactions has significantly increased, while the proportion of DeFi and ERC-20 token transactions has decreased. This indicates that Ethereum is transforming into a value storage center for on-chain assets, while the development of MEME and application types is constrained.

Although the average on-chain transaction amount of Ethereum has declined, it remains between several thousand dollars to 10,000 dollars, which is much higher than other public chains, highlighting its characteristic as a "whale-exclusive chain."

Overall, the recent price rebound of Ethereum seems more like the result of growing pains during a transition period. On one hand, the Ethereum ecosystem is working hard to optimize performance through technological updates and upgrades, but the results seem limited. On the other hand, it has become a hub for large funds and stablecoin trading, and the big players seem satisfied with the current relatively quiet state on-chain.

Therefore, the rise and fall of a single indicator has made it difficult to simply define the merits of Ethereum. The market needs to go beyond traditional growth narratives and re-examine Ethereum's core role and long-term value in a multi-chain landscape. A more mature and "stable" Ethereum may be the inevitable direction and ultimate form of its evolution.