SignalPlus Macro Analysis Special Edition: Euro Crisis

Global politics once again takes center stage as French President Macron unexpectedly announces the dissolution of parliament and a re-election after his allies suffered a crushing defeat in last week's European parliamentary elections. RN/National Rally, led by Le Pen, has made significant gains in polls, indicating that the far-right party has a chance to win an absolute majority in the June 30 elections, increasing the risk of a 'Frexit'. The current finance minister has also issued a warning about the potential financial crisis this could cause.

The rise of NR marks a turbulent period in European politics, with significant gains made by far-right parties relative to mainstream ruling parties under the pressure of rising immigration policies and living costs. This year is a historic year for democratic elections, with federal elections held in more than 70 countries globally. The votes for right-wing political figures in Germany, France, the Netherlands, Spain, Italy, Argentina, and other places continue to increase. Is this a prelude to the upcoming U.S. election further shifting towards nationalist issues? It does seem so.

Market sentiment deteriorated from the beginning, first in the French stock and bond markets, and then quickly spread to the credit market. The spread of the U.S. 5-year investment grade CDS widened by 2.5 standard deviations in a short period of time. Market liquidity is generally poor, and the one-way risk-off flows from Europe have put pressure on the historically high levels of the U.S. credit market.

Most other macro assets remain stable, benefiting from optimistic AI sentiment, with the SPX and Nasdaq indices still hovering near their highs for the year, but the increasingly narrow leadership group is becoming increasingly apparent, with only AI-related stocks standing out.

Last Friday's economic data was also of no help, with the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index falling to 65.6, well below the expected 72, the lowest level since November. In addition, inflation expectations are also moving in the wrong direction, with the median of the key 5-10 year inflation expectations stuck at 3.3%, while the long-term average expectation has soared to 5.3%, reaching the highest level since 1994.

Crypto Assets market sentiment remained subdued last week, with a lack of catalysts and weak price performance, with a spate of futures longing being slowly liquidated over the past two weeks. The Crypto Assets's quarterly performance was also weak compared to the general pump of global equities, commodities and even gold, with a fall of 5% and a year-to-date decline in newly registered Bitcoin Address, which is consistent with our long-standing argument that the current Rebound is different from previous cycles, driven primarily by TradFi's interest in a handful of Token (or indeed only BTC), while the influence of the Crypto Assets itself is shrinking as general investor interest shifts to the next hot spot (AI), The remaining builders in the industry are mainly focused on improving Blockchain and Capital Market efficiency, and these projects have lofty goals compared to the "get rich overnight" theme that Crypto Assets are accustomed to, but usually take longer, and who says Crypto Assets can't be more mature?

You can search for SignalPlus in the ChatGPT 4.0 Plugin Store for real-time encryption information. If you'd like to receive updates from us, follow us on Twitter at @SignalPlus_Web3 or join our WeChat group (WeChat: SignalPlus 123), Telegram, and Discord to connect with long fren. SignalPlus Official Website：