Will the altcoin market soon welcome a new round of pump?

The current sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is sluggish and directionless, but there are signs that we may be in the last calm period before the next round of "alts season" erupts. Future market trends will be driven by core factors such as ETFs, actual yields, and institutional adoption, rather than a broad-based pump.

Altcoin pump signals have emerged

Recently, Bitcoin has reached its highest monthly closing price in history, but its market dominance has begun to decline. At the same time, whales quietly bought over 1 million ETH in a single day, worth about $3 billion, while the balance of Bitcoin on trading platforms has dropped to a multi-year low.

Retail investors remain cautious. The market sentiment indicator is at a low level, which is the most ideal market condition for early entrants.

Currently, the alts speculation index is still below 20%, and the ETH/BTC price ratio has finally recorded its first weekly rise in several weeks. The approval of a Solana ETF on a certain trading platform has become a foregone conclusion. On-chain funds are quietly flowing towards DeFi, real-world assets ( RWA ), and re-staking, among other areas that align with market narratives.

But this is not 2021, that kind of "全面普涨" market will not reappear.

The future market will be more selective and driven by narratives. Capital is flowing towards real yields, cross-chain abstract infrastructure, and ETF structured assets with staking yield mechanisms.

If you have been silently accumulating, now might be the time to take action.

Profound Changes in the DeFi Field

DeFi is moving towards a phase of "more institutionalized and more invisible". On one hand, financial primitives designed for institutions, such as re-staked bonds, fixed-rate auto-rollover credit, and stablecoin circular vaults, are thriving. On the other hand, the composability layer is simplifying operational complexity for ordinary users.

In the end, only those protocols that go beyond "point games" and integrate real economic value or use cases will be able to continuously attract capital inflow. The real winners will be those protocols that can perfectly combine seamless cross-chain user experience, secure infrastructure, and predictable returns similar to real-world investments.

The following are six major trends occurring in the DeFi space:

1. Stablecoin yield optimization and fixed income DeFi

DeFi is increasingly mimicking traditional finance by converting stablecoins into high-yield, quasi-fixed income assets to attract funds. Against the backdrop of increased volatility in the spot market, various protocols are shifting their focus to capital efficiency and fixed rate structures to meet the dual needs of institutions and retail investors.

However, it should be noted that the high returns of 15%+ in the promotions usually require leverage, re-staking, or circular strategies. After deducting fees, slippage, and risk drag, the actual net return rate may be closer to 6-9%. Furthermore, while the composability that supports these circular structures provides convenience, it also increases the systemic risks of chain liquidations and stablecoin de-pegging.

( 2. Integrated cross-chain liquidity and user experience

The way users interact with multi-chain liquidity is undergoing a fundamental transformation. The cross-chain user experience is evolving from cumbersome bridging processes to a seamless, intent-based deposit system, effectively abstracting the boundaries between chains.

The trend is clear: value capture is gradually shifting from L1 public chains themselves to those composable infrastructure and messaging layers.

) 3. Re-staking and On-chain Security Market

Re-staking is continuing to evolve into an independent on-chain security market, essentially injecting re-staked ETH into structured products to create a yield mechanism similar to corporate bonds or government bonds.

As funds gradually flow into the re-staking ecology, we are witnessing the emergence of a new form of "re-staking yield curve": the prices of short-term and long-term debts will be priced differently based on risk perception, exit liquidity, and penalty risks, resulting in discounts or premiums.

However, composability also brings vulnerabilities. For example, the zero-coupon bond structure means that the principal must be locked until maturity, and any penalty events or validator downtime could severely harm the principal—even without smart contract vulnerabilities.

4. Monetization and Programmability of Data Infrastructure

Block space is no longer the bottleneck; data latency and composability are. Some projects aim to provide monetizable real-time read/write infrastructure for Web3 developers.

This trend is giving rise to a new middleware business model: providing developers with low-latency, blockchain-agnostic data access services, charging on demand, and potentially introducing a pricing model similar to cloud services along with a latency-based developer tier system in the future.

5. Institutional credit infrastructure and RWA integration

On-chain lending is moving towards institutionalization, with automatic renewal of credit limits, backup floating rates, and leveraged RWA strategies becoming the focus.

We are gradually approaching on-chain large-scale brokerage business, and compliant, structured fixed-income products will lead a new round of growth. However, RWA strategies require high-fidelity oracles and robust redemption logic. Any off-chain mismatches could trigger large-scale decoupling or margin call risks.

6. Airdrop Economy and Incentive Mining

Airdrops remain the main user acquisition strategy, despite user retention data continuing to decline.

However, data shows that two weeks after the airdrop, only about 15% of the total value will be retained. Therefore, project parties are forced to offer higher point multiples or bind additional benefits to attract users.

Projects that want long-term liquidity must turn to retention-oriented incentive mechanisms, such as veNFT locking, time-weighted reward mechanisms, or re-staking access, rather than relying solely on speculative points to attract new users.

!["Altcoin Season" New Version: Say Goodbye to General Rises, Narratives such as ETFs, Real Returns, and Institutional Adoption Will Ignite a "Selective Bull Market"]###https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-06ca3b9d9012bf689521322e80a20f40.webp###

Macroeconomic Narrative and Investment Framework

Despite the ongoing geopolitical turmoil that may severely impact the market, structural buyers are continuously absorbing each dip. Alts will not experience a "general rise" like in 2021; instead, narratives with tangible catalysts ( such as ETFs, real income, and exchange distribution channels ) will draw attention away from pure speculation.

( 1. Macroeconomic Background: Volatility Linked to Headline News

Recently, during the geopolitical conflicts, the price of Bitcoin fell from $105,000 to just below $99,000, which again proves that the market in 2025 is driven by headlines. Within 36 hours, several major events occurred in succession, and the BTC price dropped sharply before completely recovering.

Market Interpretation: After three months of sideways movement and the accumulation of short leverage, geopolitical panic has only sparked a liquidity grab, pushing chips from weak holders to long-term accounts. ETFs continue to absorb circulating chips, and each macro disturbance accelerates this transfer. BTC is currently fluctuating around $107,000, which is about 25% lower than the recent peak, but still above the "buy" range in a certain valuation model.

) 2. The silence of summer, or the buildup before the leap?

Although seasonal statistics suggest that the Q3 market may be relatively flat, two major structural forces have broken this trend:

• Stable buying pressure from ETFs: Experience in 2024 shows that stable ETF inflows create a structural bottom. Once the selling pressure from miners further weakens and chips continue to flow into corporate treasury, BTC could quickly surge to $130,000 once it gains momentum.
• The leadership of the US stock market: The S&P 500 index reached a new high on June 27, while Bitcoin lagged behind. Historically, this gap is often closed by BTC within 4 to 8 weeks. If overall risk appetite remains optimistic, the crypto market may just be "lagging" rather than "failing".

3. The only altcoin narrative worth paying attention to currently: Solana ETF

In a market that is extremely lacking in the narrative of the "next big event", Solana's spot ETF has become the only topic with institutional-level weight. A certain regulatory agency officially opened the review window for four ETF applications this January, with a final ruling expected to be announced by September at the latest.

If the future Solana ETF structure includes staking rewards, its role will shift from "high Beta L1 trading target" to "quasi-income digital equity." This will prompt staking-related targets to also be included in the ETF narrative. The current SOL price below 150 dollars is no longer pure speculation, but rather an early layout for "ETF packaged trading."

4. The fundamental support of DeFi

Although popular topics and rotating narratives dominate the heat of discussions on social platforms, blockchain protocols with real cash flow are quietly strengthening.

!["Altcoin Season" New Version: Say Goodbye to General Rises, Narratives like ETF, Real Returns, and Institutional Adoption will Ignite a "Selective Bull Market"]###https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-8b68a55af745f1278f0468cf87556878.webp###

( 5. Speculative Asset

The perpetual contracts recently launched on a certain trading platform, such as $BANANAS31, $TUT, and $SIREN, exhibit a "pump and dump" trading pattern: these low-liquidity assets are pumped through perpetual contracts, and the funding rate quickly turns negative, while marketers package it as "sector rotation." In essence, most of these trades are extractive—non-value-creating. It is recommended to either accept it as a "Ponzi scheme" and set clear stop-loss and take-profit points, or simply ignore it completely.

The same warning applies to speculative coins on certain L2 chains, which may rise 10 times in a day or drop 70%.

) 6. New Issuance Projects and Structural Benefits

• A trading platform is entering L2: choosing a certain L2 solution as its scaling plan and promoting the development of tokenized stocks. This strengthens the "exchange chain" theory pioneered by another trading platform. The platform may leverage its millions of users to boost user activity on Ethereum L2, creating a wave of excitement during the usual summer trading lull.
• The recent token prices of certain new projects indicate that, even in the face of significant sell-offs initially, as long as the team has a credible plan and a verifiable roadmap, their tokens can still attract positive buying in secondary trading.

7. Investment Framework for Q3 2025

• Core position: Continuously allocate a large amount of BTC until the outflow of ETF significantly exceeds the inflow ###, which has not yet been observed ###.
• Rotating Beta: Continuously accumulate SOL below $160, using it as an alternative to ETFs, and pairing it with $JTO and $MNDE for enhanced potential returns.
• Fundamental DeFi portfolio: equal weight allocation of $SYRUP, $LQTY, $EUL, $FLUID; when one of the projects performs outstandingly, profits will be rotated into the underperforming projects.
• Speculative position: Limit the risk exposure of speculative coins to within 5% of total net assets; treat each speculative coin on a perpetual contract as a weekly option trade—using a small cost to seek high returns, and set strict stop-loss.
• Event-driven: Track milestone events of a certain trading platform L2; layout in advance for catalysts related to user growth in a certain L2 ecosystem token.