Market Trends and Focus Projects

1. Market Highlights

1. Market Trends

Macroeconomic Environment

The Federal Reserve is reassessing the potential impact of the new government on the U.S. economy and inflation. Reports suggest that the Fed Chairman has expressed dissatisfaction with some officials' public remarks, believing they have too directly linked Fed policy to changes in government policy. The market generally expects that future interest rate cuts will be more gradual and cautious. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the prospects for Fed interest rate cuts in 2025, and investors need to prepare for potential economic fluctuations.

According to the data, there is an 87.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January next year, and a 12.8% probability of a 25 basis point cut. By March next year, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 50.6%, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 44.1%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 5.4%.

Cryptocurrency market

The cryptocurrency market continues to fluctuate downward, with Bitcoin once again falling below $95,000, reaching a low of $93,000, a new low in nearly a week. Data shows that the funding rates on mainstream exchanges generally exhibit a bearish trend. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow again on Friday, amounting to $287 million, with a cumulative net outflow of $376 million last week. During the market adjustment period, tokens on centralized trading platforms performed relatively well, while AI Agent-related projects continue to attract funding.

2. Hot Events

Regulatory Trends

The head of regulatory affairs at a well-known venture capital firm posted on social media, expressing confidence in decentralized finance ( DeFi ), believing that DeFi will make financial services and the digital economy more convenient, efficient, interoperable, reliable, and consumer-centric. However, the new broker report rules recently issued by the U.S. Treasury Department are seen as a direct threat to this vision and could hinder the future of DeFi innovation in the U.S. The firm supports lawsuits raised by multiple blockchain-related organizations, arguing that the IRS and Treasury Department have overstepped their statutory authority, violated the Administrative Procedure Act, and may be unconstitutional.

Trading platform rectification

The Malaysian Securities Commission has taken strict enforcement action against a cryptocurrency trading platform and its CEO for operating a cryptocurrency asset trading business locally without proper registration. The regulator has ordered the platform to immediately cease operations of its website, mobile application, and other digital platforms in Malaysia, and to complete rectification within a specified timeframe. Furthermore, the platform has also been instructed to terminate all advertising activities targeting Malaysian investors and to close social media groups that provide support to local users.

3. Hot Topics Narrative

The AI agent market is rising against the trend, with a certain AI-related project reaching a historic high in market capitalization. Data shows that despite the overall pullback in the crypto market, the AI agent sector has increased by 1.54% in the last 24 hours. The project recently released a proposal for an update to its tokenomics, planning to focus on framework innovation and multi-chain integration by acquiring mature technologies and teams in the first quarter of 2025. The second phase will focus on ecological growth and incentive synergy, aiming to enhance the connections between tokens and encourage developers through buybacks and ecological funds. At one point, the project's market capitalization soared to $1.5 billion, reflecting the market's recognition of the potential of AI agents.

2. Key Projects

$SLINKY Project

• Narrative: The largest airdrop in the Solana ecosystem represents a significant breakthrough in Solana token technology.
• Market performance: The market capitalization surpassed 10 million USD within half an hour after the token was issued, and after a brief correction, it has now risen to 11 million USD.
• Airdrop Details: 10% of the total supply will be allocated to 27,775,857 wallets that hold more than 0.006 SOL during the specified snapshot period, utilizing ZK Compression technology for large-scale distribution. Compared to traditional airdrop methods, this technology significantly reduces the required transaction fees from 55,550 SOL to just 22.2 SOL.