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QCP: With the easing of the Middle East situation, BTC/ETH is in a Sideways pattern awaiting change, and Hedging in derivation has surged.
Gate News bot message, QCP pointed out in its market analysis that the global market trend is stagnant, participants are digesting geopolitical news, and adjusting risk before volatility may return.
Gold prices initially surged due to the Israel attack on June 13, but have since retreated. Although West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil remains around $75, this has weakened safe-haven buying. The energy market remains closely tied to the conflict with Israel, and speculation about the U.S. potentially intervening in the region is still bubbling beneath the surface. The dollar has weakened slightly as the market gradually digests the possibility of U.S. direct intervention in the region within the next 48 hours. This has prompted a cautious sell-off of the dollar.
In the digital asset space, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to consolidate. Despite the rising macro uncertainty and the refreshing political noise from Trump's social media platform, the price movement remains sluggish. Investor sentiment is still stagnant, and the position allocation indicates that market participants are waiting for more decisive catalysts.
However, the derivatives market shows a more cautious tone.
The risk reversal indicators for BTC and ETH continue to show a preference for downside protection for the June and September maturities. This indicates that bullish holders are actively hedging their spot risk exposure and preparing for potential pullbacks.
It is worth noting that the implied volatility of ETH for June has fallen below that for September, indicating a compression of the short-term idiosyncratic risk premium. This may reflect a retreat in event-driven hedging or profit-taking due to the rise in short-term volatility. This contrasts sharply with BTC, which still has a mild volatility premium at the front end.
Currently, the cryptocurrency market remains in fluctuation. The next headline news, a macroeconomic shift, or a tail event could ignite a resurgence of past fluctuations.