#五月行情预测# The Federal Reserve (FED) shifts to dovish stance! Bitcoin may迎来史诗级行情, the "triple play" of interest rate cuts: Bitcoin's golden catalyst

CoinPanel expert Kirill Kretov pointed out that interest rate cuts will drive up the value of Bitcoin from three aspects: the depreciation of the dollar, the expansion of liquidity, and the decline in government bond yields.
1. Weaker Dollar: Interest rate cuts weaken the dollar's appeal, with funds shifting towards Bitcoin and other inflation-hedging assets to counter devaluation risks (historical data shows a negative correlation between the dollar index and Bitcoin).
2. Liquidity Surge: If the Federal Reserve (FED) initiates easing, market liquidity will flow into high-risk assets. The US M2 money supply surged 7.8% in April, providing fuel for Bitcoin.
3. Yield Replacement: The decline in government bond yields forces institutions to seek higher returns, and Bitcoin's appeal as "digital gold" is highlighted.
On-chain data corroborates: the number of active Bitcoin addresses increased by 15% week-on-week, and the inflow to exchanges surged to 45,000 coins in a single day, indicating that market activity and capital flow are rising in sync.
Institutions "madly scramble" for Bitcoin: Supply crunch has arrived. The current supply and demand pattern of Bitcoin is undergoing a qualitative change:
ETF madness in capital absorption: The net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States exceeded $3 billion last week, accounting for 5.5% of Bitcoin's circulating supply. Giants like BlackRock and Fidelity continue to increase their positions, with institutional holdings rising from 20% to 33%.
"Corporate "Coin Hoarding Trend": MicroStrategy (holding 550,000 coins), SoftBank, Tether, and other companies accelerate their accumulation of Bitcoin, with 80 companies holding a total of 700,000 coins (accounting for 3.4% of the total supply).
Exchange inventory is running low: the proportion of Bitcoin balance on exchanges has dropped from 16% to 13%, tightening liquidity may exacerbate price volatility.

 Standard Chartered warns that if demand continues to exceed the new supply after the halving (900 coins per day), Bitcoin will enter a "super scarcity" cycle.  
$150,000 is just the starting point?
CryptoQuant's Three Major Scenario Predictions:
1. Optimistic scenario (probability 40%): On-chain indicators break through 1.0, Bitcoin rises to $150,000 - $175,000.
2. Neutral Scenario (Probability 50%): The indicator oscillates between 0.8-1.0, and the price hovers around 90,000-110,000 USD.
3. Pessimistic Scenario (Probability 10%): Short-term selling pressure leads to a price pullback to $70,000 - $85,000.
Institutional Consensus:
Standard Chartered Bank: Breakthrough of $120,000 in Q2 2025, aiming for $200,000 by the end of the year.
Bernstein: Cycle peak at $200,000, looking long-term to $1,000,000.
Market Sentiment Indicator: The Fear and Greed Index has risen to 53 (neutral to optimistic), and the funding rate remains low, indicating a "healthy rise."