"Key support has shifted." What will happen to Bitcoin in the next week

RBC-Crypto does not provide investment advice, the material is published solely for informational purposes. Cryptocurrency is a volatile asset that can lead to financial losses.

On Sunday, May 11, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around the mark of $104,000, with the rate having increased by about 9% since the end of last week. A specialist analyzed the market situation and assessed the prospects for Bitcoin's price movement over the next seven days.

"Buyers have overcome the psychological level"

Financial Analyst BitRiver Vladislav Antonov

The past week demonstrated significant volatility in the crypto market, marked by an important event — Bitcoin has once again surpassed the psychological mark of $100,000. Trading occurred within a wide range from $93,377 to $104,361, with a dominant bullish trend that led to a weekly increase of the first cryptocurrency by 10.08%, reaching $103,785. The week began with a sideways trend as Bitcoin found temporary support around $93,500, but it concludes with a confident rise, creating a platform for further movement towards the historical maximum.

On May 5, the market showed uncertainty ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for May 7. Bitcoin saw a modest increase of 0.48%, reaching $94,733. Traditional markets faced pressure that day following President Trump's statements about possible new tariffs, resulting in a 0.72% drop in the S&P 500 and a 0.67% drop in Nasdaq. Ultimately, the support at $93,500 played a crucial role in the subsequent rise.

May 6 brought an increase in volatility amid the escalation of the geopolitical situation in Asia, triggered by India's missile attack on Pakistan. Despite this, the BTC/USDT pair showed a significant increase of 2.22%, reaching $96,834. This was facilitated by the liquidation of short positions amounting to $55 million and diplomatic intervention from the United States, as the White House confirmed negotiations with the conflicting parties. Technical analysis at this moment indicated a continuation of upward movement with the nearest target zone being $99,000 - $100,000.

On May 7, Bitcoin ended the day with a slight gain of 0.20%, reaching $97,030. The U.S. Federal Reserve, as expected, kept the key rate in the range of 4.25-4.50%. Special attention was drawn to comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the potential impact of the Trump administration's tariff policy on inflationary processes. The statement had a significant impact on risk assets, and investors began to forecast a possible reduction in interest rates as early as the second quarter of the year. It is noteworthy that after the recorded outflow of funds from Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. amounting to $85 million on Tuesday, there was a net inflow of over $105 million on Wednesday.

May 8 became a turning point of the week when Bitcoin made a powerful leap, jumping by 6.42% to $103,261. Buyers confidently surpassed the psychological level of $100,000, which triggered a massive short squeeze.

Traders with short positions suffered huge losses — liquidations alone on Bitcoin amounted to about $395 million, while the total amount of liquidations across the market exceeded $900 million. The catalyst for this impressive rally was President Trump's announcement of a trade agreement between the USA and the UK, which reduced fears regarding global trade wars.

On May 9, after a three-day rally of 11.7%, Bitcoin paused, dropping to $102,971. Trading occurred in the range of $102,315 - $104,361. American stocks also closed with a slight decline as investors cautiously awaited trade talks between the US and China scheduled for the weekend.

On May 10, Bitcoin was trading at $103,800. Since there were no profit-taking on long positions, this indicates a continuing potential for a new all-time high of $109,588. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market exceeded $3.3 trillion for the first time since early March, confirming the broad nature of the rally.

From a technical standpoint, the consolidation of Bitcoin above the $100,000 level is an important signal. According to BitRiver, the nearest targets from higher timeframes are at $114,000 and $119,000, while key support has shifted to $98,500.

It is worth noting that since the beginning of the week, Ethereum (ETH) has shown an impressive growth of 33.37%, reaching $2412, which is three times the performance of Bitcoin. However, until ETH updates its all-time high of $4868 from 2021, it will remain in the category of meme coins for me.

It is also important to consider the geopolitical situation. Pakistan has launched a military operation against India. The escalation of this conflict could have a significant impact on various markets, including the cryptocurrency market.

The announced trade agreement between the US and the UK turned out to be less beneficial than expected. The US maintained 10 percent tariffs on British goods while gaining broader access to UK markets, which does not align with President Trump's promises of a comprehensive trade agreement. This position may complicate upcoming negotiations with China.

Next week, from May 12 to May 18, special attention should be paid to the inflation data in the USA, which will be released on May 13. It is expected that the core consumer price index will rise by 0.3% month-on-month and by 2.8% year-on-year.

This data may influence the Federal Reserve's decisions regarding interest rates at the June meeting. Also, on May 16, the consumer expectations indexes from the University of Michigan will be released, reflecting consumer confidence in the economy. A key date remains July 9 — the deadline for the Trump administration to revise its tariff policy.

All these factors, along with the statements of President Trump, who remains the main newsmaker from 2024 to 2028, will determine the movement of the cryptocurrency market in the near future.