The Federal Reserve is about to hold a critical interest rate meeting, and the market atmosphere is already tense. The Fed team led by Powell is facing multiple challenges, including increasing political pressure, uncertain trade policies, and complex economic signals.

The upcoming week is referred to as "Data Bomb Week", during which the United States will successively release several important economic indicators, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the July employment report, and the core inflation data closely watched by the Fed. Although the market currently generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, this upcoming data may become a key factor influencing the direction of monetary policy.

Several key predictions are worth noting:

1. The annualized GDP growth rate for the second quarter is expected to be 2.4%, a rebound compared to the -0.5% in the first quarter. However, this growth mainly relies on the narrowing of the trade deficit, and its sustainability is questionable.

2. The July non-farm payroll data is likely to show a slowdown in growth, partly due to the seasonal hiring peak in the education sector having passed in June. The unemployment rate may rise to 4.2%, which could indicate that the job market is not as hot as expected.

3. The core inflation indicator for June is expected to rise slightly month-on-month, which may reflect that tariff costs are gradually being passed on to consumers, indicating that inflationary pressures still exist.

The集中发布 of these economic data, each of which could have a significant impact on Fed's policy decisions. Even though the current market expects Fed to maintain the status quo, once this data is released, decision-makers may have to reassess and adjust the policy direction.

In the face of economic complexity, the Fed may adopt a more cautious stance, making decisions after comprehensively considering various data to avoid formulating inappropriate policies due to misjudgment of the situation. We will wait and see how this 'data storm' reshapes the Fed's policy blueprint.