#打榜优质内容# When retail investors panic sell, smart money is operating in the opposite direction. Despite the market's big dump, Bitcoin spot ETF still recorded a net inflow of $237 million this week, with BlackRock's IBIT product seeing an inflow of $103 million in a single day. Ethereum ETF has become a reservoir for hidden flows, accumulating $5.12 billion in inflows, building a foundation for price stability.

On-chain data reveals greater mysteries: 1.28 million ETH (approximately $5 billion) have been quietly absorbed by whale addresses during the fall, with exchange ETH reserves dropping to their lowest level in a year. This explains why Ethereum was able to surge to $3,352 in an instant, with exceptionally strong support at the bottom.
The market sentiment indicators hint at a turning point. Although the RSI has entered the oversold zone, the BTC MVRV ratio approaches the 365-day moving average (current value 2.2), and historical data shows that this position often triggers massive rallies. The futures funding rate has returned to neutral, indicating that the leverage bubble has been effectively squeezed out, laying the foundation for a healthy rebound.
Policy prospects are beginning to emerge. The Trump administration continues to appoint pro-crypto individuals to key positions at the SEC and CFTC, and its media group has applied to launch Truth Social Bitcoin and Ether ETF (decision by September 18). If approved, it will open the floodgates to hundreds of billions of dollars in incremental funds.
Statistics show that Bitcoin has fallen 8 times in the past 12 months, with a seasonal decline probability of 67%. However, this year there are three major reversal factors:
1. Token unlocking amount big dump by 52%: Only 3 billion USD unlocked in August, far lower than 6.2 billion in July, supply shock weakened.
2. Institutional holding costs are rising: the average entry cost of Bitcoin ETF has reached $108,000, forming an iron bottom support. 3. Political cycle dividends: If Trump is elected, he promises to end the Biden administration's "hostile regulation" against cryptocurrencies. The breakthrough window for Ethereum is approaching. Data from trader bets show that 38% of market participants anticipate a breakthrough of $4,000 in August, while only 2% expect a bullish move to $4,500. This expectation gap may become the fuel for a market explosion.

The essence of the August market is the liquidity game between institutions and whales. While retail investors tremble at the liquidation data, BlackRock is accumulating an average of 2,300 BTC daily through the ETF channel; as short-term traders are slaughtering in the leverage arena, ancient whales are testing market depth during their cold wallet transfers.
History always breeds turning points in bloodshed. After the big dump on "3.12" in 2020, Bitcoin rose 300% in six months; after the FTX collapse in 2023, the increase reached 270% within 12 months. Currently, the BTC MVRV ratio is once again approaching a critical point, and the futures leverage ratio has dropped to a healthy level, showing a striking resemblance to the technical structure on the eve of previous surges.