In the past week, the Fed held its July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and decided to keep the federal funds interest rate unchanged at between 4.25% and 4.5%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that there is still uncertainty about how tariffs affect inflation and noted that these effects may take time to fully manifest. Although he did not indicate that a rate cut would happen immediately in September, market expectations for a rate cut at the next meeting have risen. Currently, about 80% of market participants expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting. Meanwhile, the U.S. government reiterated its tariff policy before the August 1 trade deadline and reached agreements with several trading partners, including the UK, Japan, and the EU. However, in other instances, the U.S. has implemented new tariffs, many of which are as high as 15% or more. According to data from the Yale Budget Lab, the average tariff rate in the U.S. may have risen from about 2% to about 18%, which could exert upward pressure on commodity prices and suppress consumer spending over time. As I have emphasized multiple times before, I expect this to be reflected in U.S. inflation data in the first or second quarter of 2026. In terms of the labor market, the latest data shows signs of a slowdown. The U.S. economy added only 73,000 non-farm jobs, far below the expected 104,000, and employment growth for the previous two months has also been significantly revised down. Additionally, the unemployment rate has risen from 4.1% to 4.2%. #晒出我的Alpha积分# #加密项目计划# #加密市场反弹#