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The recent performance of the Bitcoin market has been astounding. It has hovered between $26,000 and $29,000 for five consecutive months, with such little volatility that short-term traders have lost interest. However, at the beginning of October, it suddenly fell below the $25,000 mark, triggering pessimism in the market. But unexpectedly, the price quickly rose back above $27,000, and this extreme volatility has made many investors feel uneasy.
This apparent calm actually conceals significant changes within the market. The current state of the cryptocurrency market is very similar to the end of the bear markets in 2018 and early 2020: it seems peaceful on the surface, but there are undercurrents at play. The market lacks new capital injections and mainly relies on the interplay of existing funds.
However, history tells us that the arrival of a bull market may be faster than we think. The cyclical changes of Bitcoin have consistently shown remarkable regularity. Looking back at the past, each halving event has been accompanied by a significant price increase: after the halving in 2012, Bitcoin rose from $12 to $1163; after the halving in 2016, it increased from $600 to $20,000; and after the halving in 2020, it soared from $3,800 to a historic high of $69,000.
This periodic rise is not a coincidence but rather the result of Bitcoin's inherent deflationary mechanism and market consensus working together. Although some are worried about a potential economic crisis in the coming year, it is worth noting that Bitcoin often performs well during times of economic turmoil. It was born out of the 2008 financial crisis and was further propelled during the global pandemic in 2020. In fact, the instability of fiat currency systems often enhances Bitcoin's appeal as a safe-haven asset and a means of storing value.
The current calm in the market may just be the quiet before the storm. With the ongoing changes in the global economic environment, Bitcoin may once again demonstrate its potential as digital gold, providing investors with a unique financial haven.