Chronicling the End of Bitcoin: Analyst Warns It Could Disappear in 11 Years

While many view Bitcoin as a resilient digital asset that has weathered countless challenges, some analysts believe its long-term survival remains uncertain. A new forecast suggests that the leading cryptocurrency could face existential risks within the next decade.

Shrinking Security Budget Raises Concerns

Justin Bons, founder and CIO of the Europe-based crypto fund Cybercapital, argues that Bitcoin’s reliance on its proof-of-work (PoW) consensus mechanism may ultimately lead to its downfall. The system requires miners to validate transactions and secure the network in exchange for rewards.

According to Bons, Bitcoin’s “security budget”—the compensation miners receive—has been shrinking for years and has already dropped by over 40% in the past four years. He predicts that as this trend continues, the mining industry may become unprofitable within 7 to 11 years, undermining the network’s ability to function securely.

Risks of Weak Network Security

If mining incentives collapse, Bons warns that Bitcoin would face a dramatically lower hashrate, leaving it vulnerable to censorship and 51% attacks. Such vulnerabilities could jeopardize billions of dollars held in wallets across the globe.

“Core will then have to increase inflation beyond 21 million, splitting the chain—and that will be the end,” Bons cautioned, suggesting that developers might be forced to abandon Bitcoin’s fixed supply cap in an effort to sustain miner participation.

A Debate Within the Bitcoin Community

The issue of Bitcoin’s long-term sustainability has also been raised by Bitcoin Core developer James O’Beirne, who in April expressed concerns that a mining crisis could push participants to alter Bitcoin’s core economic principles, which he described as its “property rights.”

While Bitcoin continues to enjoy widespread adoption and institutional recognition, the debate underscores a fundamental question: Can the network remain secure and decentralized as mining rewards dwindle?

For now, Bitcoin persists as the most dominant cryptocurrency. But for critics like Bons, the countdown to its potential end has already begun.