CPI meets expectations》The probability of the Fed cutting rates by one percentage point next week exceeds 98%. The US stock market has experienced a big pump, but analysts have raised three hidden concerns: a possible big pullback of 20% in the first half of 2025

Investment research firm BCA Research recently warned that the U.S. stock market is likely to see a sharp pullback sometime in the first half of next year, with a fall expected to exceed 20%, and investors should consider defensive measures to hedging risks. (Synopsis: Bank of America warns: S&P 500 stock net worth ratio is approaching the peak of the "Internet bubble" era, Cryptocurrency, U.S. stocks overheating alarm bell sounds. (Background addition: U.S. stocks attracted $55.8 billion in a week, the "global market share" hit a 75-year high, but European stocks have fallen for five consecutive weeks. The US CPI report for November was released last night. Data showed that the US CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month in November, both in line with analysts' expectations. While rising 0.1% from October, the second month in a row and rising to a near four-month high, the market seems to see the data as a green light for a US rate cut next week. According to CME's FedWatch tool, the current market forecast of a one-yard Fed rate cut in December has risen to 98% after the CPI report. U.S. stocks rose, the index broke 20,000 points for the first time The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 99.27 points, or 0.22%, to 44,148.56 points The S&P 500 rose 49.28 points, or 0.82%, to 6,084.19 points The Nasdaq rose 347.65 points, or 1.77%, to 20,034.89 points The Philadelphia semiconductor index rose 133 points, or 2.7%, to 2.7%. 5,027.80 points According to Google Finance, the S&P 500 has hit 57 all-time highs so far this year, with a rise of more than 27%. At the same time, the total US stock market cap has risen from $47.3 trillion at the beginning of the year to nearly $61 trillion this year. Total U.S. Stock Market Cap. Source: Finance M Square BCA Research: U.S. stocks will fall 20% next year However, for the future trend of U.S. stocks, investment research firm BCA Research recently analyzed that the U.S. stock market may usher in a sharp pullback sometime in the first half of next year, and the downward fall is expected to exceed 20%, investors should consider taking defensive measures in time to hedging risks. In response to this view, the team of BCA Research analysts led by Doug Peta listed three reasons why U.S. stocks will usher in a big pullback next year: First, consumption downgrade. Analysts pointed out that the current consumption momentum is waning compared to the retaliatory consumption behavior after the new crown epidemic, which is reflected in the decline in revenue of home improvement companies Home Depot and Lowe's, consumers are more inclined to cut back and choose low-priced goods. This is followed by a weak labor market. Analysts pointed out that according to the October employment data, the job vacancy rate and turnover rate are rising, and the corporate hiring rate is declining, indicating that the economy is still at risk of recession and creating a vicious circle: "Spending will slow due to lower employment, wages will shrink further, and spending will be further reduced, companies will cut discretionary investment, and a recession will follow." Finally, stocks are overvalued by the market. The S&P 500 is currently trading at 23 times its current P/E ratio, and such extreme valuation levels make current equity investments very risky. Ned Davis Research: The stock market can't rise forever At the same time, research firm Ned Davis Research also reminded the current Bull Market of US stocks, pointing out that since 1982, in the S&P 500 index hit more than 50 all-time highs, the next year the median Return on Investment was -6%, while the S&P 500 has hit 57 all-time highs this year. Next year is likely to repeat this historical trajectory: stocks can't rise forever. In addition, Morgan Stanley strategist Andrew Slimmon also pointed out that investors should appropriately reduce their holdings this year, because the current stock market is full of bubbles: the stock market is dominated by bubbles and low-quality growth stocks, the current investment environment is very similar to 2021, it is prudent to reduce holdings appropriately. Related reports How long can U.S. stocks set off a "BTC coin tide" and follow the micro-strategy frenzy? Buffett cuts another 100 million shares of Apple, holding a record 10 trillion yuan in cash! Is it difficult for U.S. stocks to escape the fate of a flash crash after the election? Micro strategy big rise 10% to the top of the US stock volume champion! Another announcement of bond issuance of $2.6 billion to increase the position BTC (CPI in line with expectations) Fed next week drop a yard probability of more than 98% U.S. stocks rise, but analysts put aside three hidden worries: the first half of 2025 may pull back 20%" This article was first published in the moving area BlockTempo "Dynamic Trend - The Most Influential Block Chain News Media".